Real Science Meets Junk Science

post Feb 6 2011, 12:44 PM
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Our beloved truth movement and its high ideas of openness, intellectual honesty and obedience to the laws of science may need to take a look in the mirror. I write this not to dismiss all the excellent work which independent researchers have done, but to point out that even the most trusted of us have made (I believe) some errors and they need to be retracted. I will not attribute motive to these errors... such as cognitive infiltration, hubris, control, power and so forth. Errors can be made innocently and honestly. We all make them unintentionally. To err is human. I write now not of motive, but of the fact that we need to look at some of our errors... and some of them made by "giants' in the truth movement.

Several of the erroneous claims and exaggerations have been identified and we no longer hear of them. One was the diagonal cut core column as the smoking gun evidence of the use of thermtie on the core columns. This was made in a paper written by Steven Jones, repeated by Gordon Ross PE who cited it as proof in support of his thesis.

This and other claims by the truth movement have been debunked and Gordon Ross has retracted some of so called evidence he cites in support of his theory.

The work of Bazant and Zou has been discredited as reductionist and not descriptive of the destruction. Intellegent engineers who produced junk science.

What Happened

Structural failure refers to loss of the load-carrying capacity of a component or member within a structure or of the structure itself. Structural failure is initiated when the material is stressed to its strength limit, thus causing fracture or excessive deformations. In a well-designed system, a localized failure should not cause immediate or even progressive collapse of the entire structure. Ultimate failure strength is one of the limit states that must be accounted for in structural engineering and structural design.

A building undergoes progressive collapse when a primary structural element fails, resulting in the failure of adjoining structural elements, which in turn causes further structural failure. The resulting damage is disproportionate to the original cause, so the term disproportionate collapse is also used to describe this collapse type.

Extreme Loading for Structures (ELS) - a commercial structural analysis software program based on the applied element method (AEM) for the automatic tracking and propagation of cracks, separation of elements, element collision, and collapse of structures under extreme loads[1]. AEM combines features of Finite element method and Discrete element method simulation with its own solver capabilities for the generation of PC-based structural analysis.

In the ELS modeler the user has the ability to model using a variety of default structural components such as columns, slabs, walls, windows, steel sections, reinforcement and 8-node objects. Pre-stressing, cables, pre-cracking and holes can also be added to models to reflect the required attributes of structures. To aid the user in modeling, attachments such as *.dxf, *.stl, *.dgn, and *.jpeg can be easily imported. Models can also be imported from several FEM based software programs such as Abaqus, ANSYS, Etabs, Gambit, Ideas, LS-DYNA, Nastran, Patran, SAP2000, and STAAD. ELS is Building Information Modeling (BIM) compatible with a plug-in for Autodesk Revit Structure, allowing users to import previously created structural components[3].

The solver performs multi-stage static and dynamic analysis in 2D and 3D. Static loading types include concentrated loads, displacements, hydrostatic pressures, uniform pressures, moving loads, element removals, and line loads. Available dynamic loading types include concentrated loads, displacements, seismic loads, uniform pressures, element removals, and moving loads. ELS comes with a predefined material library with both linear and non-linear material models that include steel, concrete, reinforced concrete, glass, aluminum, elastic, and tension[3].
The AEM solver automatically calculates:

* Crack generation
* Plastic hinge formation
* Element separation
* Buckling, post buckling and large displacements
* Contact and collisions

Structural Vulnerability Assessment:

Due to the nature of extreme loads resulting from blasts, impacts, seismic events and progressive collapse, large amounts of structural damage can usually be expected. This damage cannot be studied solely as the initial loading type; the user must also be able to additionally consider the secondary effects of the failing elements on other parts of the structure.

1. Initial Load: The initial load is the type of loading which may cause damage to a main supporting column and which can lead to a progressive collapse.
2. Secondary Effect: The secondary effect comes from flying debris. This may cause another failure in other main supporting elements and can result in the structure loosing its ability to carry the increased loads, leading to a total failure.

Most structural analysis methods currently used to perform a structural vulnerability assessment depend on the Finite Element Method (FEM). Unfortunately FEM is not capable of automatically analyzing a structure up to element separation and collision which has a great effect on a structure's performance during collapse. For example, a blast load can cause damage to a main supporting column in a structure, which will cause debris flying from the damaged column to be moving at a very high velocity. This debris can cause additional local failure in another column upon impact and can lead to the progressive collapse of the entire structure. While FEM can determine a point of failure, it cannot calculate crack propagation, separation of elements or secondary collision of structural elements.
The Applied Element Method (AEM) on the other hand has the ability to analyze a structure right down to element separation and secondary collision. This allows structural engineers to fully study the effects of such extreme loads, from the initial cracking until the all elements come to rest. AEM analysis was used by Applied Science International, LLC in the modeling and simulation of the collapse analysis of Oklahoma's Murrah Building.

Ronan Point was an example of a progressive collapse.

"On 16 May 1968 the 22 storey residential tower Ronan Point in the London Borough of Newham collapsed when a relatively small gas explosion on the 18th floor caused a structural wall panel to be blown away from the building. The tower was constructed of precast concrete, and the failure of the single panel caused one entire corner of the building to collapse. The panel was able to be blown out because there was insufficient reinforcement steel passing between the panels. This also meant that the loads carried by the panel could not be redistributed to other adjacent panels, because there was no route for the forces to follow. As a result of the collapse, building regulations were overhauled to prevent disproportionate collapse and the understanding of precast concrete detailing was greatly advanced. Many similar buildings were altered or demolished as a result of the collapse.[10]"

Frank Legge, although qualified as a chemist shows ignorance about how a structures were put together and how they fail and how the floors could collapse. He won't admit it and he won't admit he is not competent to explain aviation matters either.

Most ECD (explosive controlled demolition) proponents dismiss the gravity driven part of the destruction and assume that the destructive initiation which was required to start the collapse was therefore required to continue the collapse and gravity played virtually no part and could not account for such a collapse. They all share the same lack of understanding of materials and structures though they apparently accept Newton's 3 laws on the macro level.

The speed of collapse is perfectly explainable by the nature of the failure - which was a progressive destruction of the floors.

The only part of the destruction which needs to be understood is how it began and where the series of "attacks" which led to the creation of the threshold conditions for the progress failure of the floor system which led to the failure of the facade columns and ultimately left the core columns too tall and thin to support themselves without bracing.

The initiating event could have been a single explosion destroying the structural integrity of a sufficient number of floors representing the threshold mass to cause the progressive floor failure. A single explosive event is certainly a possibility.

However if this was the case, the explosive force stopped at the facade because we observe the upper floor's facade descending not being blasted outward. It is still possible that a single explosive event occurred and was obscured by the facade. It broke apart the core, much of the floors attached to it and the percussive force did not extend to the facade.

It is also possible and likely that the attack which initiated the collapse was directed at a number of structural elements. It did not have to be taken at the same instant and it did not have to attack ALL the structure. The attack initiation likely involved a series of attacks which over time "took out" various structural members and this led to a load redistribution to the remaining members which were not attacked or had not reached the point of failure from similar attack... such as partial cutting by thermite reducing a member's load carrying capacity.

Over time these attacks removing members and redistributing loads to remaining ones reached the point where the remaining structure at the level of these attacks exceeded its yield strength and they gave way. Progressive structural failures through framed structures propagate very rapidly.

When the frame lost integrity all the mass descended in obedience to Newton's laws... and the floor which was the recipient of the descending mass complied as well and it too failed. And so on and so on.

Heat could have weakened the structure... if hot enough as in a Besemer furnace and long enough... but not in an open air fire from normal carbon combustion. Ergo the introduction of incendiaries such as thermite and explosives to blast connections apart. Both of these were likely part of the initiation.

Is there evidence to support this? YES.. We see the eutectic melting of the steel which was ABOVE the crash zone (none from below). We see extreme temperatures below the debris as if some melted iron, steel, aluminum and other metals had seeped down and collected in pools... as liquids do. There are reports of molten metal from below all three towers and this too supports heat exceeding open air carbon based combustion.

These are all signatures of "attacks" of the structure and can be connected to the region ABOVE the plane crash zones. This is very damning evidence of an engineered attack which could initiated the progressive collapse of the floors.

Why is this "theory" such an anathema to the truth movement and its proponents? Why is this characterized as the OCT?

Why is the person who presents this science called a fake, a dis info agent, a disruptive influence with a mission to destroy the most respected "911 truth" groups?

Why is there such staunch rejection of science when it is the same science which will demonstrate that the initiation was engineered?

You can't have it both ways. You can't call in science for SOME aspects of the destruction and IGNORE it for other aspects of the destruction.

The truth movement needs to take a honest, methodical, rational, fact based, scientific approach to understanding the destruction of the twin towers. Nothing more or less will do.

All those who do not support this are anti intellectuals frauds. No other words can be used to describe them. They talk the talk but don't walk the walk.

No one has proved that a progressive floor failure is not possible when the threshold conditions present. No one.

In response to the discussion of what happened at the World Trade Center there have been discussions about where the towers went, but remarkably few about where the rationality and good sense of the truth movement went.

It bears some discussion on what is going on at a meta level as it relates to any discussion about the World Trade Center as well as the Pentagon and Shankesville.

On the one hand we see a type of "herd mentality" and a circling of the wagons to protect ideas and theories which have attacked the OCT by the most and some less respected members of the 911 truth community. And since a new idea is seen as displacing an older one it is seen as an attack from the OCT and the enemy. PARANOIA and IRRATIONALITY. Are we in jeopardy of becoming lemmings following stubborn ego driven leader off the cliff who have assured us that they have "got it right"... and used only science to get it right? I fear this may be where we are heading.

And then there's the willful ignorance to look at the science and engineering because it in fact, is undermining some of the "scientific" claims of the truth movement. This, of course, seriously not only undermines the "truth movement's claims... as in another competing theory.. oh ho hum... it undermines their use of "science" their claims of the OCT's false science, if the truth movement is in fact doing much the same, it undermines the individual's credibility of those who make the claims and they effectively become deniers of science.

This would be a rather fatal outcome. Who could take the truth movement or any of its staunch advocates, published papers etc. seriously, if they amount to "junk science"? Not too many rational people would or should.

Now I am not asserting that everything the truth movement and these vocal advocates such as Fetzer, Cole, Chandler, Wood, Legge, Hoffman, Jones et al says is 100% junk science. I am not asserting that some of these researchers have not done yeoman's work at presenting the false science used in the OCT and have done some excellent science to explain what the OCT fails to. I am simply asserting the truth movement needs to stick to the truth and be very careful in its use of "science" and engineering. And certainly not dismiss or disparage those who expect his of the truth movement.

I am neither a scientist nor an engineer. I am an architect with a fundamental understanding that architects must have of structure to design buildings. I am not a physicist nor a chemist nor a materials scientists. I don't know how to use finite element analysis.

I understand structure and composite systems, progressive structural failure theory to know what is possible. Other scientists and engineers who DON'T support the OCT have done the calculations and shown that progressive failure IS not only possible but what explains what happened with those floors.

The resistance to this science is explained by the truth movement trying to hold onto its standing as the "truth" it purports to rest upon is no more the "truth" that the OCT was shown to fall upon.

This is a problem. Who can we believe? We know the OCT was a lie and its supporters lie and have their "global agenda" and political objectives... But who can we trust to tell us what happened if the guys who say they are telling the truth are not only blowing smoke and mirrors (like the OCT) but acting like "idea nazis" and closing out those who are asking for the truth? That is not "a good thing" as Martha Stewart used to say.

But the truth movement is really an ad hoc assembly of researchers... some with louder voices such as Fetzer...and more followers.... such as Lemkin... All of them seem to be crippled by and in the thrall of willful ignorance of science, embracing junk science, of course not seeing this and blind to the fact that they are actually part of the problem and not part of the solution... at this point.

When you make a mistake... Man up and admit it.

Gordon Ross PE did it... Robert McCoy sees it... I, too, have revised my thinking on what happened. I did it by study and by not accepting on face value what ANYONE said. Not all of the people who have criticized the movement are OCT apologist or proponents... nor infiltrators and spies.

We have much too much to do to be learning basic science at this stage. There is too much at stake here.

Would you all please drop the ego and suspend your hubris and support our getting the facts, engineering and science correct. ALL OF IT. Not pick and choose what suits your pet theory.

There is lots to explain. But let's not fight about the explainable and provide exotic and overly complex explanations... just because the "government did it" and they have the resources to do it and cover it up.

Let's uncover the truth with real science not junk science.
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post Feb 8 2011, 07:12 AM
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Bravo, SanderO. No rhyme intended.

I always get the impression that your posts relating to the WTC collapses are loaded with more facts and detail than my attention span or modest intellect can do justice to. I appreciate your careful and comprehensive approach, nonetheless.

I also can't help but notice that your arguments tend to attract what I would consider to be unwarranted criticism and occasionally even character attacks and abuse. I hope this doesn't discourage you.

I watched Ross' 2006 presentation a few months ago and was impressed. Although it is not immediately apparent or obvious to me exactly how your analyses overlap, I find it re-assuring that you have both arrived at similar conclusions.

I may have more comments or questions once I've delved into this area a little bit deeper.

Thanks again - mr m (no rhyme intended).

This post has been edited by mrmitosis: Feb 8 2011, 07:13 AM
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post Feb 8 2011, 08:04 AM
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QUOTE (mrmitosis @ Feb 8 2011, 06:12 AM) *
Bravo, SanderO. No rhyme intended.

I always get the impression that your posts relating to the WTC collapses are loaded with more facts and detail than my attention span or modest intellect can do justice to. I appreciate your careful and comprehensive approach, nonetheless.

I also can't help but notice that your arguments tend to attract what I would consider to be unwarranted criticism and occasionally even character attacks and abuse. I hope this doesn't discourage you.

I watched Ross' 2006 presentation a few months ago and was impressed. Although it is not immediately apparent or obvious to me exactly how your analyses overlap, I find it re-assuring that you have both arrived at similar conclusions.

I may have more comments or questions once I've delved into this area a little bit deeper.

Thanks again - mr m (no rhyme intended).

Anyone can post pages and pages of technobabble, but it doesn't mean that it's true. And the main reason why some of us, who have studied what happened to these buildings, don't even want to respond to is because it's a major waste of time. I've gone round and round on other threads here and on other forums, and no matter what, he's just going to keep responding with more lengthy technobabble posts that have little to do with the information that is being challenged.

Some of us have pointed out the flaws of his assertions over and over and that still doesn't stop him from continuing to make those same assertions. The problem is then, when the rest of us have finally give up in frustration and stop trying to reason with him, he ends up looking like the final authority on the subject. Keep in mind, this isn't the only forum he posts on and he finally got banned from another forum where I challenged him, when he tried to claim that the glow from an explosion on the corner of Liberty and Church was the sun setting in the afternoon. The person taking the picture was standing on the north side of the picture, facing south. The setting sun would have been to the right.

This post has been edited by DoYouEverWonder: Feb 8 2011, 08:04 AM
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Posts in this topic
- SanderO   Real Science Meets Junk Science   Feb 6 2011, 12:44 PM
- - SanderO   False Science / claims / evidence presented by the...   Feb 6 2011, 02:50 PM
|- - KP50   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 7 2011, 06:50 AM) 13...   Feb 8 2011, 11:42 PM
- - aerohead   I cant believe your posting this BS. Ronan Point...   Feb 6 2011, 03:59 PM
- - DonM   Well, I agree with one thing... it was a good idea...   Feb 6 2011, 04:12 PM
- - SanderO   Ronan Point was given as an example of a progressi...   Feb 6 2011, 04:59 PM
- - amazed!   Many of your 17 points are complete nonsense Sande...   Feb 6 2011, 05:22 PM
- - aerohead   It is estimated that it would have taken about 130...   Feb 6 2011, 05:33 PM
- - SanderO   Amazed I couldn't agree with you more and the...   Feb 6 2011, 05:48 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 6 2011, 04:48 PM) Am...   Feb 6 2011, 05:53 PM
- - SanderO   I've been practicing architecture since 1970 a...   Feb 6 2011, 06:32 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 6 2011, 05:32 PM) I...   Feb 6 2011, 07:22 PM
|- - aerohead   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 6 2011, 05:32 PM)Sug...   Feb 6 2011, 07:59 PM
- - SanderO   DYEW, I didn't say I was so much smarter than...   Feb 6 2011, 07:43 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 6 2011, 06:43 PM) DY...   Feb 6 2011, 08:04 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 6 2011, 06:43 PM) DY...   Feb 7 2011, 12:10 AM
- - SanderO   Aero, The plane strike comment was correctly iden...   Feb 6 2011, 08:52 PM
- - tnemelckram   Hi My Dear Friends And Compatriots DYEW and Aero...   Feb 7 2011, 12:00 AM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (tnemelckram @ Feb 6 2011, 11:00 PM...   Feb 7 2011, 12:11 AM
- - tnemelckram   Hi DYEW! Even a nuke or theromobaric theory w...   Feb 7 2011, 12:22 AM
- - aerohead   As ive posted before, it is estimated by scientist...   Feb 7 2011, 04:12 AM
- - SanderO   A shot building such as 5 would not experience a c...   Feb 7 2011, 05:35 AM
|- - aerohead   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 7 2011, 04:35 AM)A s...   Feb 8 2011, 05:59 AM
- - SanderO   Cross posted on another thread but relevent here: ...   Feb 7 2011, 08:19 PM
- - paranoia   questions (for mr.sanderO) - how many vertical co...   Feb 7 2011, 08:28 PM
- - SanderO   Paranoia, Thank you for asking. I can't uploa...   Feb 7 2011, 09:34 PM
- - mrmitosis   Bravo, SanderO. No rhyme intended. I always get t...   Feb 8 2011, 07:12 AM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (mrmitosis @ Feb 8 2011, 06:12 AM) ...   Feb 8 2011, 08:04 AM
|- - KP50   QUOTE (DoYouEverWonder @ Feb 9 2011, 12:0...   Feb 8 2011, 11:38 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (KP50 @ Feb 8 2011, 10:38 PM) Hey D...   Feb 9 2011, 12:28 AM
- - SanderO   DYEW, I do most of my "serious" technic...   Feb 8 2011, 11:21 AM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 8 2011, 10:21 AM) DY...   Feb 8 2011, 01:10 PM
- - SanderO   DYEW, Not for your sake. You claim to have spent...   Feb 8 2011, 02:30 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (SanderO @ Feb 8 2011, 01:30 PM) DY...   Feb 9 2011, 05:59 AM
- - Paul   Its like another false claim of the so called trut...   Feb 8 2011, 04:11 PM
- - talayo   SanderO and supporters: My common sense and visua...   Feb 9 2011, 01:26 AM
- - SanderO   You can see them if you send me your email. Other...   Feb 9 2011, 08:46 AM
- - mrmitosis   DYEW - The only point I'm prepared to make a...   Feb 9 2011, 08:35 PM
- - SanderO   I am quite certain that this bright light is refle...   Feb 9 2011, 08:57 PM
- - SanderO   I have been in communication with Gordon Ross as I...   Feb 9 2011, 09:05 PM
- - DoYouEverWonder   Thanks for the Gordon Ross link. He definitely get...   Feb 9 2011, 10:01 PM
- - SanderO   Gordon I believe is not entirely correct and I hav...   Feb 9 2011, 10:30 PM

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