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Slide Of The Us Dollar

Sanders
post Jan 22 2009, 08:46 AM
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Two charts - this is the US Dollar Index for the year -



This is the Dollar against the Yen, also over the past year -



You can buy a dollar now for 88 Yen. 88 !!!

In '95 it hit a historical low at 85 yen to the dollar for a short time, we are almost there again.

My point is, these two charts together don't make any sense. They are mutually exclusive. One says the dollar is strong, the other shows it tanking.

dunno.gif
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Sanders
post Jan 23 2009, 07:38 AM
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I've been watching the value dollar of the dollar go up on the USDX while going down in relation to the Yen (charts above) for a few months now, scratching my head the whole time. Of course I understand that the USDX is based partly on commodity prices, but I figure something's gotta give sooner or later. The stock market has been somewhat stable as well over that same period, hovering between 9 and 8 thou. I predict that's about to change too.

Call it a hunch.
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jo56
post Jan 29 2009, 09:39 AM
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I heard a guy on Financial Sense Jan 24, 2009 saying the dollar has been forming a massive Head and Shoulders top since 1990. This is a very ominous sign. He predicts it will go from its .85 current level down to .40 (a 50% devaluation). He, like many others, says hard assets are the only defense (gold, silver, etc). He predicts, along with others, that gold could get to $2,000 or even $3,000 per oz. He also says we're now experiencing a hyperinflationary depression.

Bob McHugh, 1st Hour, Technical:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html
https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp



Here are some interesting M3 charts: (Increased printing of dollars is directly tied to inflation)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

This post has been edited by jo56: Jan 29 2009, 09:50 AM
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Sanders
post Feb 1 2009, 06:06 AM
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QUOTE (jo56 @ Feb 2 2009, 08:39 AM) *
Here are some interesting M3 charts: (Increased printing of dollars is directly tied to inflation)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html


That's scary. Good resource though, since the FED won't publish M3 anymore.


Bond yields are on the rise:

Rising bond market tensions bode ill for Obama

RAWSTORY
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Rising_bond_m...l_01312009.html

QUOTE
"Why are we picking a fight with China?" says David Kotok at Cumberland Advisors, who said the action suggested a move toward protectionism.

"How does the Obama administration believe that launching a fight with China is beneficial? In the 1930s the severe recession of 1929-1931 was turned into the depression of 1931-1933 because of protectionism."



This might signal the beginning of the dollar's fall.
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Method
post Feb 1 2009, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE (Sanders @ Jan 30 2009, 09:06 AM) *
That's scary. Good resource though, since the FED won't publish M3 anymore.


They don't want anyone to know the size of the money supply so it becomes more difficult to determine the actual rate of inflation.

Those guys are just so swell.
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Sanders
post Feb 1 2009, 03:27 PM
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Judging by the last published M3 numbers, the money spent so far on bailouts, and a recent Glenn Beck show where a (somewhat un-scientific) chart was shown, it looks to me like the money supply has more than doubled since 2000, much of that rise having occured recently, and, the massive amounts of money for these bailouts that have been approved but hasn't been created yet aren't even reflected in that. They are printing money "like there's no tomorrow". Peter Schiff is right IMO, when this temporary flight to the dollar and T-bills due to uncertainty in other assets blows over, the dollar is gonna start dropping like a rock, and it's not exactly strong right now if you look at the Yen/Dollar conversion (89 Yen to the Dollar - an almost unprecidented low).

China owns tons of US dollars (a trillion or more in Treasury notes) and Obama is talking tough to China??? - not smart.

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dMz
post Feb 1 2009, 03:31 PM
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[The Grammar "Nazi:"] You should have put "money" in quotes above, Sanders. wink.gif
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Sanders
post Feb 1 2009, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE (dMole @ Feb 5 2009, 01:31 PM) *
[The Grammar "Nazi:"] You should have put "money" in quotes above, Sanders. wink.gif


doh1.gif

Sorry, Federal Reserve Notes. You're right, it doesn't even deserve to be called money, quotes or no quotes. wink.gif
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Sanders
post Feb 2 2009, 02:24 AM
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Is It Time to Bail Out of the US?

By Paul Craig Roberts
January 28, 2009, Information Clearinghouse

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21867.htm

QUOTE
California State Controller John Chiang announced on January 26 that California’s bills exceed its tax revenues and credit line and that the state is going to print its own money known as IOUs. The template is already designed.

Instead of receiving their state tax refunds in dollars, California residents will receive IOUs. Student aid and payments to disabled and needy will also come in the form of IOUs. California is negotiating with banks to get them to accept the IOUs as deposits.

California is often identified as the world’s eighth largest economy, and it is broke.


QUOTE
Obama’s bailout plan, added to the FY 2009 budget deficit he has inherited from Bush, opens a gaping expenditure hole of about $3 trillion.

Who is going to purchase $3 trillion of US Treasury bonds?

Not the US consumer. The consumer is out of work and out of money. Private sector credit market debt is 174% of GDP. The personal savings rate is 2 percent. Ten percent of households are in foreclosure or arrears. Household debt-service ratio is at an all-time high. Household net worth has declined at a record rate. Housing inventories are at record highs.

Not America’s foreign creditors. At best, the Chinese, Japanese, and Saudis can recycle their trade surpluses with the US into Treasury bonds, but the combined surplus does not approach the size of the US budget deficit.

Perhaps another drop in the stock market will drive Americans’ remaining wealth into “safe” US Treasury bonds.

If not, there’s only the printing press...
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grizz
post Feb 2 2009, 03:44 AM
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Sorry these charts are so small. They graph the total borrowing by banks from the Federal Reserve. Please note that the second chart is in hundreds of billions, whereas the first (which covers through 2007) is in the billions.



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Sanders
post Feb 24 2009, 08:39 PM
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How the Economy was Lost

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
Feb 24, 2009
CounterPunch

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02242009.html

QUOTE
The other serious problem is the status of the US dollar as reserve currency. This status has allowed the US, now a country heavily dependent on imports just like a third world or lesser-developed country, to pay its international bills in its own currency. We are able to import $800 billion annually more than we produce, because the foreign countries from whom we import are willing to accept paper for their goods and services.

If the dollar loses its reserve currency role, foreigners will not accept dollars in exchange for real things. This event would be immensely disruptive to an economy dependent on imports for its energy, its clothes, its shoes, its manufactured products, and its advanced technology products.

If incompetence in Washington, the type of incompetence that produced the current economic crisis, destroys the dollar as reserve currency, the “unipower” will overnight become a third world country, unable to pay for its imports or to sustain its standard of living.

How long can the US government protect the dollar’s value by leasing its gold to bullion dealers who sell it, thereby holding down the gold price? Given the incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street, our best hope is that the rest of the world is even less competent and even in deeper trouble. In this event, the US dollar might survive as the least valueless of the world’s fiat currencies.
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Sanders
post Mar 22 2009, 03:22 AM
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Uhh ohhh.


Dollar Declines Most Since 1985 Plaza Accord on Fed Bond Buying
Bloomberg, March 21 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...refer=worldwide

QUOTE
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped the most against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners since the Plaza Accord almost a quarter-century ago as the Federal Reserve’s plan to purchase Treasuries spurred speculation that it’s debasing the greenback.

“What it introduces is the problem of the currency to the extent that the Fed is buying what isn’t desired by foreign holders,” said Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in an interview on Bloomberg Television on March 19...


I also noticed that the dollar is now at trading at under 96 Japanese yen. The US bond/currency bubble may finally be bursting.
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Sanders
post Mar 24 2009, 10:45 AM
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The stock market has been gaining for the last week or so - many people are thinking, thank goodness the bleeding has stopped - but this is actually the trigger for a crash in the bond bubble and the US dollar. It may or may not have started, but the dollar is down considerably and China and Russia are asking what the new reserve currency will be. If you have any money, spend it. Buy food, buy gold. Buy anything you think you might need - cause those dollars will buy less and less from here on out.

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GroundPounder
post Mar 24 2009, 10:58 AM
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QUOTE (Sanders @ Mar 22 2009, 01:45 PM) *
The stock market has been gaining for the last week or so - many people are thinking, thank goodness the bleeding has stopped - but this is actually the trigger for a crash in the bond bubble and the US dollar. It may or may not have started, but the dollar is down considerably and China and Russia are asking what the new reserve currency will be. If you have any money, spend it. Buy food, buy gold. Buy anything you think you might need - cause those dollars will buy less and less from here on out.


there's a lot of merit to what you say. if the dollar were to lose its reserve currency status, there would certainly be considerably less incentive for others to 'buy' US debt. w/o others financing the forecasted trillion dollar deficits, what happens? w/ the printing of dollars to buy debt, that is inflationary. w/ a doubling or tripling of the money supply chasing the same number of goods, i don't think prices will go down. a lot of feedback loops in this.
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Sanders
post Mar 24 2009, 11:25 AM
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QUOTE (GroundPounder @ Mar 28 2009, 08:58 AM) *
there's a lot of merit to what you say. if the dollar were to lose its reserve currency status, there would certainly be considerably less incentive for others to 'buy' US debt. w/o others financing the forecasted trillion dollar deficits, what happens? w/ the printing of dollars to buy debt, that is inflationary. w/ a doubling or tripling of the money supply chasing the same number of goods, i don't think prices will go down. a lot of feedback loops in this.


Prices won't reflect the inflation (the definition of inflation is the increase in the money supply, not the increase in prices) right away, but the money has been inflated, double in the last decade at least, and most of it recently - and the printing presses are just kicking in. I live in Japan, so I have a sense of the predicament the Japanese are in, which is the same with China - both hold huge amounts of US debt, and both depend on US consumers to sustain their export economies. But there is a limit to how much bad debt a country is willing to buy in order to prop up a failed system. We've already passed that line, all that's required is the "trigger". The result will be a run on the dollar. I'm no Einstein, but since the recent strength in the dollar is related to the stock market crash and people having to liquidate to meet obligations, it follows that when stocks stabilize and start to go back up, those people will be trying to get rid of their bonds and cash to take advantage of the new trend - which, in concert with the crazy inflationary policies the Fed has been following, will be the trigger IMO for Japan and China to finally stop buying US debt. Then the REAL crisis, the crash of the US dollar that Peter Schiff has been warning us about, will begin in earnest.
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Sanders
post May 2 2009, 04:08 AM
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China has 'canceled US credit card': lawmaker
AFP@RAWSTORY

http://rawstory.com/news/afp/China_has_can...l_04302009.html


QUOTE
...Treasury Department data shows that investors in China have sharply curtailed their purchases of bonds in January and February.

Representative Mark Kirk, a member of the House Appropriations Committee and co-chair of a group of lawmakers promoting relations with Beijing, said China had "very legitimate" concerns about its investments.

"It would appear, quietly and with deference and politeness, that China has canceled America's credit card," Kirk told the Committee of 100, a Chinese-American group.

"I'm not sure too many people on Capitol Hill realize that this is now happening," he said...


For how this is significant, read my previous post.

(For those that have money, keep it safe - gold, silver, commodities, real assets.)
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albertchampion
post May 2 2009, 08:49 PM
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it is about to become a perfect storm in the global economy.

there are virtually no currencies that are anything other than tp[even the swiss rolled over for the ecb and the fed and trashed themselves].

if anyone would investigate, i think you might find that the recent us debt financings[bond, tbill sales] have been purchased by the fed. and i would insist that the recent bear market rally is the result of a totally manipulated stock market.

i suppose that if you were a savvy trader, watching the board and your holdings minutely on a daily basis, money could have been made on the manipulation. but, i am not a trader. i have other assets to manage. so, i am out of the stock and bond markets.

the gold and silver markets are also being manipulated by the central bankers. though in some circles, saying this qualifies one for the tin-foil hat club, i have found over the years that my tin-foil hat has been spot-on. i have never sensed the existence of a conspiracy that failed to reveal itself, eventually.

on the other hand, gold and silver are actual stores of real value. according to recent chinese government pronouncements, they have been recognizing this. while the rest of the tp central bankers have been selling their gold, the chinese central bank has been acquiring it. and never forget, china is now the largest miner of gold.

as i see it, the financial end-game for the arrogant, homicidal usa and its allies has been disclosed.

japan is the most extraordinary paper tiger. perhaps you can tell us what its game has been. consider, it has a negative birth rate. as i have watched it for years, miti seems to have disappeared. and japanese manufacturing has sunk to remarkable lows. and then there have been the japanese banks who seem to be co-conspirators of the us fed and the ecb to manipulate the prices of silver/gold[tocom]. in my appraisal, these actions are not the actions that benefit japan.

japan reminds me of argentina. i won't take the time to dwell on that here, at this time, but suffice it to say that if you put both countries under a microscope, i think you would be surprised by the similarities.

my theory at the moment is that you should have 6-12 months of us dollars on hand to sustain you and your family. you might as well hold them, you can't earn any interest on them at any bank.

and acquire as much gold/silver as you can. but do not hold it in a safety deposit box. hold it tightly to you. and tell no one that you are acquiring such assets. i would add, don't acquire american precious metal coinage. there are questions being raised as to the gold/silver content. i know, it would surprise you that the us mint is fudging gold content. but, that is what some recent acquirers of the puportedly .9999 fine buffaloes are reporting.

canadian maple leafs. vienna philarmonics. .9999fine.

the united states has been a fraudulent financial state since those gangsters, nixon and connally, repudiated the gold foundation of the usa in 1971.

and since then, no pol has cared to restore the foundations of the usa's treasury.

so, we are scheduled to inherit the wind, i think. not just us, the entirety of the planet. all who allowed the banksters to devalue national assets by substituting gold/silver with tp.

how to respond to this situation is a puzzle. as a manufacturer, my brain is hurting. i have to acquire raw materials. will my suppliers be around? as i have said in a previous post, i decided to run on a cash basis some years ago, when i sensed the perils of requiring debt. i have stockpiled two years worth of critical raw materials. principally because the one thing i cannot do is spin gold from straw.

think on those manufacturing entities that have structured themselves on a "just in time" modality.

there is this guru by the name of jim cramer. he thinks the real estate market has bottomed[or if not bottomed yet, will by end of june 2009]. well, i think he is whistling in the dark. the arm mortgages are coming up soon for a resetting. and then there are the commercial real estate mortgages coming up for renewal. so ugly in so many parts of the country.

i think of manhattan last fall. i was astonished to find so many jack-up cranes building so many condos, apartments. i understand that most of those projects have been shut-down. loans rescinded. interim financings defaulted.

and these are stories that you will not be reading. because the plutocrats don't want you to know how dire it all is.

enough, now, it is time for my daily doze of thorazine.
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Sanders
post May 3 2009, 09:14 AM
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Jim Cramer is clueless IMO.

As for Japan, the US and Japanese economic systems were set up by the same people, around the same time. After Jacob Schiff, backed by the house of Rothschild, finished financing the Rockefeller and Harriman empires (through Nat. City Bank of Cleveland and Kuhn & Loeb which he ran), he went to Japan. Loans to Japan used to modernize the country during the Meiji era were arranged by Schiff (at the beginning of the 20th century).

In other words, the US and Japan are connected at the hip, have been for a long time. I say to my friends, 'hey, Japan's gotta quit propping up the US - you're gonna get pulled under as well' - and they all say - 'that'll never happen, Japan will always be the lapdog of the US.'

Japan however retains more independence than the US in my opinion, for two reasons. The Bank of Japan is half owned by the Japanese government, unlike the FED which is totally private. Secondly, the Japanese work their butts off- their country is still very solvent.

On the other hand, to the Japanese (hopefully my friends here will forgive me for making generalizations), concepts like liberty and privacy are abstractions. They follow along the global elite's agenda lock-step, to them, getting a chip in the arm will be the new cool thing. They don't have a clue. I figure that's why the "war on terror" hasn't really changed things here much - the Japanese are the model. ( They work hard, don't complain, & pay their taxes, which are substantial.)
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Sanders
post May 15 2009, 12:32 PM
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I have said that when the stock market stabilizes people will "sell" their dollars for stocks again, which will precipitate a fall in the dollar, which is inevitable because of the huge amount of money the Fed has introduced into the system in the past few years, particularly recently. The dollar has been hovering just under a 100 yen for some time - it's fallen to 95 Yen (not unprecedented, but a scary number here in Japan - also, remember, Japan is doing everything it can to stop this fall of the dollar to the yen in order to protect their export market, mostly by buying US bonds.) I'm not sure, but since the stock market is more or less rallying, I'd guess this is evidence that the slide of the dollar has started.

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Trapster
post May 26 2009, 10:46 PM
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The US Federal Government will float a $100 Billion offering of T-Bills this week.

Helicopter Ben will have to buy a bunch of these.

Let's see if he ends up owning them all.
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