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Plane Crash In New York State, 9/11 victim's wife aboard.

Omega892R09
post Feb 13 2009, 08:43 AM
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I am not about to hypothesise but others here may be able to fill in any blanks:

Plane crash in NY state kills 49 - BBC
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rob balsamo
post Feb 16 2009, 04:18 AM
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Although i hate to do this prior to seeing a report by the NTSB, i'll give my 2 cents thus far.

According to the ATC audio, winds were not a factor. Wind reports were within 10-20 degrees of runway (IIRC) and around 14 knots.

Also according to the same audio, it appears ice was also not a factor. Aircraft reported 1/4" Rime ice on the descent (according to Delta 1998) and were shedding the ice once level at intercept altitude (altitude to intercept the glideslope of the ILS, air was obviously warmer there and ice was shedding off the airframe) according to Cactus 1452.

The Q400 is well equipped to handle flight into known icing conditions. The aircraft is equipped with de-ice boots (inflatable rubber "boots" on leading edges which cracks off the ice) and other de-ice/anti-ice features (windshield heat, .etc). Reading other boards and those who fly the Q400, the Q400 has two automatic modes for ice removal (you can see them on the overhead Ice Panel). A slow mode and fast mode. Slow mode cycles the boots (inflates the boots/cracks off the ice), once every 3 minutes. Fast mode inflates once every minute.

If ice were a factor, the ice would have had to accumulate to "dangerous levels" in less than 3 minutes prior to flap selection if the pilots had slow mode selected. Since this was an approach, and there was obvious ice, fast mode was probably selected (need more info here from FDR/Airline policy). Which means ice would have had to accumulate to danger levels in less than a minute. However, other aircraft on the approach do not report severe icing of any kind during the same time of the approach, flying in the same air and same altitudes.

If any ice protection on the aircraft had failed, the pilots would be alerted via cockpit alerts and will run the checklist/QRH. I have never seen a checklist which allows continued flight into known icing with failed ice protection equipment. Therefore, the pilots would have had to divert to another airport (if able to find an airport with no ice, they would have had fuel for an alternate. Google: IFR Fuel Reserves), or declare an emergency and land at KBUF, which they did not, nor did they indicate any ice protection equipment fail to ATC when they supposedly reported Ice to ATC. This is why we need to see the FDR/CVR. The NTSB has made no mention of an Ice Protect fail and they have reviewed the FDR. If there was an Ice Protect Fail, the NTSB most likely would have said something to that effect by now, if they are offering AP modes to the public.

Keep in mind, the audio provided by liveatc.net is a scanner type of receiver. It seems to have been scanning tower and approach frequencies at Buffalo. When someone speaks, the scanner stops on the freq. If both freq's are 'active' at the same time, some transmission could be cut off. We need to see the "official transcript" for full ATC audio. Colgan 3407 may have reported their ice when the liveatc scanner stopped on the tower freq.

Albert brings up a good point regarding the claims of a "flat" crash. The crash scene reported up to this point claims no signs of forward momentum. Did this thing flat spin into the house?

I would like to see the full ATC transcripts from the time of DL1998 check in to land, FDR and CVR of Colgan 3407, before drawing any conclusions.
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Posts in this topic
- Omega892R09   Plane Crash In New York State   Feb 13 2009, 08:43 AM
- - DoYouEverWonder   The wish of a 9/11 widow Posted 12/5/04 A member ...   Feb 13 2009, 09:11 AM
- - Ricochet   The lawsuit was not about money, it was for accoun...   Feb 13 2009, 11:54 AM
- - JFK   ATC Audio - http://event.liveatc.net/kbuf/KBUF-Feb...   Feb 13 2009, 12:49 PM
- - jo56   One of Buffalo crash victims met with Obama earlie...   Feb 13 2009, 02:13 PM
- - grizz   A little more information: Beverly Eckert, Bereav...   Feb 13 2009, 02:31 PM
- - grizz   Voices of September 11 My Silence Cannot Be Bo...   Feb 13 2009, 03:20 PM
- - painter   I must say, this is all bloody suspicious coming o...   Feb 13 2009, 04:32 PM
|- - datars   QUOTE (painter @ Feb 10 2009, 12:32 PM) I...   Feb 15 2009, 11:52 PM
- - Ricochet   Final communications. Source. http://network.natio...   Feb 13 2009, 04:54 PM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (Ricochet @ Feb 13 2009, 08:54 PM) ...   Feb 18 2009, 06:34 PM
- - rob balsamo   The above transcript has alot of errors. For those...   Feb 13 2009, 05:46 PM
- - rob balsamo   ILS 23 KBUF (pdf)   Feb 13 2009, 05:55 PM
- - paranoia   http://www.colganair.com/ http://www.colganair.com...   Feb 13 2009, 06:39 PM
- - paranoia   a list of some of the others onboard the plane: ...   Feb 13 2009, 06:47 PM
- - paranoia   just saw this posted by SmokingGunz over at LCF: ...   Feb 13 2009, 08:08 PM
- - Trismagistus   I'm neither a pilot or an activist, but a rese...   Feb 13 2009, 09:34 PM
- - JFK   http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/578574.html ...   Feb 13 2009, 10:01 PM
|- - kgray1   QUOTE (JFK @ Feb 13 2009, 09:01 PM) http:...   Mar 20 2009, 02:57 AM
- - amazed!   Another one bites the dust...Too Bad. I guess it ...   Feb 13 2009, 10:58 PM
- - Trismagistus   I watched the news tonight. They are missing the o...   Feb 13 2009, 11:26 PM
- - rob balsamo   Colgan 3407 Air Traffic Control Audio and Transcri...   Feb 13 2009, 11:56 PM
|- - Graeme   ATC Audio provided by www.liveatc.net. Transcript ...   Aug 1 2010, 12:40 PM
|- - starviego   Here is more evidence that engine failure, not pil...   Oct 6 2010, 12:09 AM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (starviego @ Oct 6 2010, 04:09 AM) ...   Nov 11 2010, 12:59 PM
|- - starviego   You can access the documents here: http://www.nts...   Nov 17 2010, 12:39 PM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (starviego @ Nov 17 2010, 04:39 PM)...   Nov 24 2010, 11:57 AM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (starviego @ Nov 17 2010, 04:39 PM)...   Nov 24 2010, 12:32 PM
- - rob balsamo   44 guests logged onto this thread currently. Welco...   Feb 14 2009, 12:57 AM
- - painter   Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7890455....   Feb 14 2009, 06:38 PM
- - Trismagistus   At 2300 feet heading 2-6-0 3407 was instructed to ...   Feb 14 2009, 07:02 PM
- - captsly   NOTE WHAT IS SAID AT 31 MINUTES AND ZERO SECONDS.....   Feb 14 2009, 07:37 PM
|- - JFK   QUOTE (captsly @ Feb 14 2009, 06:37 PM) N...   Feb 14 2009, 07:47 PM
- - rob balsamo   Welcome to the forum captsly. Please try to post...   Feb 14 2009, 07:46 PM
|- - captsly   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Feb 14 2009, 06:46 P...   Feb 14 2009, 11:29 PM
|- - captsly   QUOTE (captsly @ Feb 14 2009, 10:29 PM) s...   Feb 14 2009, 11:46 PM
- - DoYouEverWonder   NYT - In Plane Crash, Loss of Momentum Still a Mys...   Feb 14 2009, 09:55 PM
- - albertchampion   when i was flying my baron, icing was the scariest...   Feb 15 2009, 01:57 AM
- - amazed!   Having never flown the Dash 8, it's a safe bet...   Feb 15 2009, 11:47 AM
- - Trismagistus   In reading the last few posts Im in agreement and ...   Feb 15 2009, 02:15 PM
|- - KP50   QUOTE (Trismagistus @ Feb 16 2009, 07:15 ...   Feb 15 2009, 04:21 PM
|- - Omega892R09   QUOTE (KP50 @ Feb 13 2009, 07:21 PM) I wa...   Feb 15 2009, 06:17 PM
- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE Fatal US plane 'was on autopilot' ...   Feb 15 2009, 06:34 PM
|- - nitatutt   The local weather was odd on the 12th. We are al...   Feb 15 2009, 07:35 PM
- - albertchampion   there are many incorrect aspects of this flight re...   Feb 15 2009, 08:48 PM
- - richard cranium   The ABC affiliate here in southern California keep...   Feb 15 2009, 09:26 PM
- - albertchampion   the "on" autopilot aspect of this story ...   Feb 15 2009, 10:07 PM
- - JFK   A cockpit view of the Q-400 from bombardier - http...   Feb 16 2009, 12:41 AM
- - rob balsamo   Steve Nieman is one of our core members and is a C...   Feb 16 2009, 01:28 AM
|- - JFK   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Feb 16 2009, 12:28 A...   Feb 16 2009, 10:12 AM
|- - rob balsamo   QUOTE (JFK @ Feb 16 2009, 09:12 AM) You a...   Feb 16 2009, 11:38 AM
|- - JFK   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Feb 16 2009, 10:38 A...   Feb 16 2009, 12:00 PM
- - paranoia   im far from anything even remotely close to being ...   Feb 16 2009, 03:37 AM
- - rob balsamo   Although i hate to do this prior to seeing a repor...   Feb 16 2009, 04:18 AM
|- - paranoia   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Feb 16 2009, 03:18 A...   Feb 17 2009, 01:05 AM
- - rob balsamo   Found these on another board.... QUOTE METARS for...   Feb 16 2009, 04:44 AM
- - datars   Good Post!!! Nice input from everyone....   Feb 16 2009, 11:19 AM
- - amazed!   This is a classic stall/spin accident, with severa...   Feb 16 2009, 04:06 PM
- - paranoia   ETA: some wreckage that survived: (one of the ...   Feb 17 2009, 01:22 AM
- - rob balsamo   Saw the vid.... interesting... thanks.   Feb 17 2009, 01:40 AM
- - Omega892R09   For those interested in Buffalo/Niagara airport de...   Feb 17 2009, 12:49 PM
- - grizz   Welcome to Pilots!   Feb 18 2009, 06:44 PM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (grizz @ Feb 18 2009, 10:44 PM) We...   Feb 18 2009, 07:01 PM
- - painter   Wow. Yes, welcome to the forum Graeme   Feb 18 2009, 07:02 PM
- - rob balsamo   ILS Approach plate for KBUF Runway 23. QUOTE (rob ...   Feb 18 2009, 07:18 PM
- - Leslie Landry   FSB reports are stating today that American fascis...   Mar 1 2009, 11:02 PM
|- - Leslie Landry   for some reason..it wont let me post the rest of t...   Mar 1 2009, 11:13 PM
- - Cheri   It is said that flying is safer than driving...wit...   Mar 1 2009, 11:16 PM
- - amazed!   Quite a web you weave LL. Fascinating stuff. If ...   Mar 1 2009, 11:19 PM
- - grizz   Well, if we're going to invoke Sorcha Faal, I...   Mar 1 2009, 11:45 PM
- - Cheri   I find it interesting that out of a group of 911 t...   Mar 1 2009, 11:51 PM
- - rob balsamo   Preliminary is out from NTSB. Not much as expected...   Mar 2 2009, 12:33 AM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Mar 2 2009, 05:33 AM...   Apr 3 2009, 03:52 PM
- - dMole   A belated hello and welcome Graeme.   Mar 2 2009, 12:53 AM
- - albertchampion   yes, i suppose a sudden flat spin of only downward...   Mar 2 2009, 02:19 AM
- - amazed!   Grizz I am skeptical of the blog you offered. It...   Mar 2 2009, 10:51 AM
|- - grizz   QUOTE (amazed! @ Mar 2 2009, 06:51 AM...   Mar 2 2009, 10:58 AM
- - amazed!   Thanks Grizz.   Mar 2 2009, 11:12 AM
- - rob balsamo   Welcome kgray! By the way folks.. be nice to ...   Mar 20 2009, 03:01 AM
|- - kgray1   QUOTE (rob balsamo @ Mar 20 2009, 02:01 A...   Mar 20 2009, 03:04 AM
|- - rob balsamo   QUOTE (kgray1 @ Mar 20 2009, 03:04 AM) Th...   Mar 20 2009, 03:14 AM
- - dMole   Hello and welcome kgray1. I'm sorry to hear o...   Mar 20 2009, 03:04 AM
- - rob balsamo   QUOTE NTSB Advisory National Transportation Safet...   Apr 28 2009, 12:17 AM
- - Ricochet   Flight 3407 and swine flu connection. FWIW. http:/...   Apr 28 2009, 02:03 PM
- - paranoia   "Buffalo crash: Pilots acted 'just opposi...   May 12 2009, 11:45 PM
- - albertchampion   it is an odd transcript of the cvr. and the propo...   May 14 2009, 12:33 AM
- - Graeme   I see that NTSB are publishing on 3407 already, I ...   May 14 2009, 08:23 PM
- - Graeme   Please analyse and reply with your informed knowle...   May 14 2009, 09:30 PM
- - albertchampion   you are correct about one aspect of this: the alac...   May 14 2009, 09:30 PM
|- - DoYouEverWonder   QUOTE (albertchampion @ May 14 2009, 09:3...   May 14 2009, 09:44 PM
- - rob balsamo   Unfortunately i missed this when it was published ...   Jul 29 2009, 01:48 AM
- - rob balsamo   Colgan Landing Stall Profile http://www.ntsb.gov/...   Jul 29 2009, 02:13 AM
- - paranoia   just wanted to add this overlooked coincedence/iro...   Feb 8 2010, 12:34 AM
- - starviego   If you read the reports of the witnesses on the gr...   Apr 8 2010, 01:11 AM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (starviego @ Apr 8 2010, 06:11 AM) ...   Jul 28 2010, 05:36 PM
- - truthmatters   I watched the video of the animation. At first I w...   Jul 29 2010, 10:18 PM
- - amazed!   I'm guessing you're not a pilot, and thus ...   Nov 25 2010, 12:09 PM
|- - Graeme   QUOTE (amazed! @ Nov 25 2010, 04:09 P...   Nov 29 2010, 12:55 PM
- - Graeme   I just figured out another reason why I felt a str...   Nov 30 2010, 02:10 PM
- - starviego   The names of 48 of the 50 dead victims were releas...   Dec 1 2010, 10:01 AM
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