Plane Crash In New York State, 9/11 victim's wife aboard. Options

[Omega892R09]

I am not about to hypothesise but others here may be able to fill in any blanks:

Plane crash in NY state kills 49 - BBC

[rob balsamo]

Although i hate to do this prior to seeing a report by the NTSB, i'll give my 2 cents thus far.

According to the ATC audio, winds were not a factor. Wind reports were within 10-20 degrees of runway (IIRC) and around 14 knots.

Also according to the same audio, it appears ice was also not a factor. Aircraft reported 1/4" Rime ice on the descent (according to Delta 1998) and were shedding the ice once level at intercept altitude (altitude to intercept the glideslope of the ILS, air was obviously warmer there and ice was shedding off the airframe) according to Cactus 1452.

The Q400 is well equipped to handle flight into known icing conditions. The aircraft is equipped with de-ice boots (inflatable rubber "boots" on leading edges which cracks off the ice) and other de-ice/anti-ice features (windshield heat, .etc). Reading other boards and those who fly the Q400, the Q400 has two automatic modes for ice removal (you can see them on the overhead Ice Panel). A slow mode and fast mode. Slow mode cycles the boots (inflates the boots/cracks off the ice), once every 3 minutes. Fast mode inflates once every minute.

If ice were a factor, the ice would have had to accumulate to "dangerous levels" in less than 3 minutes prior to flap selection if the pilots had slow mode selected. Since this was an approach, and there was obvious ice, fast mode was probably selected (need more info here from FDR/Airline policy). Which means ice would have had to accumulate to danger levels in less than a minute. However, other aircraft on the approach do not report severe icing of any kind during the same time of the approach, flying in the same air and same altitudes.

If any ice protection on the aircraft had failed, the pilots would be alerted via cockpit alerts and will run the checklist/QRH. I have never seen a checklist which allows continued flight into known icing with failed ice protection equipment. Therefore, the pilots would have had to divert to another airport (if able to find an airport with no ice, they would have had fuel for an alternate. Google: IFR Fuel Reserves), or declare an emergency and land at KBUF, which they did not, nor did they indicate any ice protection equipment fail to ATC when they supposedly reported Ice to ATC. This is why we need to see the FDR/CVR. The NTSB has made no mention of an Ice Protect fail and they have reviewed the FDR. If there was an Ice Protect Fail, the NTSB most likely would have said something to that effect by now, if they are offering AP modes to the public.

Keep in mind, the audio provided by liveatc.net is a scanner type of receiver. It seems to have been scanning tower and approach frequencies at Buffalo. When someone speaks, the scanner stops on the freq. If both freq's are 'active' at the same time, some transmission could be cut off. We need to see the "official transcript" for full ATC audio. Colgan 3407 may have reported their ice when the liveatc scanner stopped on the tower freq.

Albert brings up a good point regarding the claims of a "flat" crash. The crash scene reported up to this point claims no signs of forward momentum. Did this thing flat spin into the house?

I would like to see the full ATC transcripts from the time of DL1998 check in to land, FDR and CVR of Colgan 3407, before drawing any conclusions.

[paranoia]

Although i hate to do this prior to seeing a report by the NTSB, i'll give my 2 cents thus far.

According to the ATC audio, winds were not a factor. Wind reports were within 10-20 degrees of runway (IIRC) and around 14 knots.

Also according to the same audio, it appears ice was also not a factor....

thanks for the details about the wind/ice rob. it was exactly the kind of (technical) insight that i
needed to better understand whats (possibly) wrong with (the given cause to) this crash.

btw- did u check the video i linked at the bottom of my post (from ABCnews)?
in it they depicted the plane in a flat spin falling down out of the sky...
but thats ABC not the ntsb,
so their animation/simulation of the event doesnt really count for anything "official".

and speaking of animations,

here is NBC Nightly News's report (with their own simulation) that aired tonight:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/29226906#29226906

note the seeds being planted:

(IMG:http://img32.picoodle.com/img/img32/3/2/16/f_crash3407Am_71f9aa8.jpg)

(IMG:http://img32.picoodle.com/img/img32/3/2/16/f_crash3407Bm_6b46583.jpg)

(IMG:http://img32.picoodle.com/img/img32/3/2/16/f_crash3407Cm_4478c2c.jpg)

(IMG:http://pilotsfor911truth.org/forum/style_emoticons/default/ohmy.gif)

(IMG:http://pilotsfor911truth.org/forum/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif)