Here is a snip from the Latest GEAB report
The report goes on to say that in the aftermath of this debacle the US will resemble Europe in 1912
Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main
structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to
properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to
the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their
determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic
crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation.
According to LEAP/E2020, this new stage of the crisis will be shaped by two major processes
happening in two parallel sequences:
A. Two major processes:
1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollar & Debt) all over the world
2. Fragmentation of the interests of the global system’s big players and blocks
B. Two parallel sequences:
1. Quick disintegration of the current international system altogether
2. Strategic dislocation of big global players.
We had hoped that the decanting phase would give the world’s leaders the opportunity to draw the
proper conclusions from the collapse of the global system prevailing since WWII. Alas, at this stage, it
is no longer possible to be optimistic in this regard1. In the United States, as in Europe, China and
Japan, leaders persist in reacting as if the global system has only fallen victim to some temporary
breakdown, merely requiring loads of fuel (liquidities) and other ingredients (rate drops, repurchase of
toxic assets, bailouts of semi-bankrupt industries,…) to reboot it. In fact (and this is what LEAP/E2020
means ever since February 2006 using the expression « global systemic crisis”), the global system is
simply out of order; a new one needs to be built instead of striving to save what can no longer be
History is not known to be patient, therefore the fifth phase of the crisis will ignite this required
process of reconstruction, but in a harsh manner: by means of a complete dislocation of the present
system, with particularly tragic consequences in the case of several big global players, as described in
this 32nd issue of the GEAB (see the two parallel sequences).
According to LEAP/E2020, there is only one very small launch window left to prevent this scenario
from shaping up: the next four months, before summer 2009. Practically speaking, the April 2009 G20
Summit is probably the last chance to put on the right tracks the forces at play, i.e. before the
sequence of UK and then US defaults begin2. Failing which, they will lose their capacity to control
events3, including those in their own countries for many of them; and the world will enter this phase
of geopolitical dislocation like a “drunken boat”. At the end of this phase of geopolitical dislocation, the
world will look more like Europe in 1913 rather than our world in 2007.
Because they persisted in bearing the ever-increasing weight of the ongoing crisis, most states,
including the most powerful ones, failed to realise that they were planning their own trampling under
the weight of History, forgetting that they were merely man-made organisations, only surviving
because they matched the interest of a large majority. In this 32nd edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020
has chosen to anticipate the fallout of this phase of geopolitical dislocation so far as it affects the
United-States, EU, China and Russia.